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2021 British Open Bets & Picks: Our Favorite Outrights, Longshots ...

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Royal St. George
Royal Portrush
The Renaissance Club
Royal St. George’s
the Korn Ferry Tour
Torrey Pines
T-8 and T-7
the Travelers and Rocket Mortgage
Augusta National
Brooks Koepka
the Rocket Mortgage
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Jane Barlow
Jordan Spieth
Rory McIlroy
Darren Clarke
Zach Johnson
Shane Lowry
Lee Westwood
Claret Jug
Phil Mickelson
Tom Watson
Marc Leishman
Harris English
Kramer Hickok
Lucas Herbert
Min Woo Lee
Justin Thomas
Patrick Reed
Justin Rose
Joaquin Niemann
Tommy Fleetwood
Bryson DeChambeau
Sergio Garcia
Cameron Smith
Scottie Scheffler
Kevin Kisner
Rickie Fowler
Daniel Berger
Francesco Molinari
Robert MacIntyre
Jason Day
Abraham Ancer
Brian Harman
Stewart Cink
Tyrrell Hatton
Jon Rahm
Tony Finau
Patrick Cantlay
Dustin Johnson
Adam Scott
Collin MorikawaThis
Xander SchauffeleKoepka
Jon RahmThis


Captain America
the Sanderson Farms

Royal St.
Quail Hollow
Royal St. George’s
the Memorial back
WNB Golf Classic
St. Andrews
the Zurich Classic
the U.S. Open
the Scottish Open

the United States

The Open Championship
the 2017 PGA Championship
the 2021 Open Championship
the Open Championship
the U.S. Open
the PGA Championship
the Travelers Championship
the Scottish Open
the 2019 Open Championship
Major Championships
the U.S Open

Positivity     47.26%   
   Negativity   52.74%
The New York Times
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It can be argued that each of the year’s first three major champions owned some sort of fate-meets-destiny conclusion and it can similarly be argued that a win by Westwood in England would rival the significance and popularity of the win by Mickelson at Kiawah.I don’t like Westwood by leaps and bounds over the other contenders I’ll have near the top of my list this week, but he is my favorite outright play for this one – just as he’s been for the past 16 months.Marc Leishman (+6600)Leishman has finished sixth or better in three of his last six Open starts. Rory has said all of the right things for me to go back to the well after I backed him at a similar number to win the U.S. Open.Rory had an early exit at last week’s Scottish Open, which on the positive end allowed him to get to Royal St. George’s early and start working through the course. I’m looking past that and also excusing him from the 2019 Open in his home country where he seemed to fold under the pressure with an awful opening hole and subsequent round.I’ve been a week or two early on a number of guys this year, but I’m getting back in on Rory here before that happens again.Justin Thomas (+2000)Justin Thomas is due for another major championship victory. It’s one of my favorite performances on that circuit because it’s translated to the big leagues.He’s also played his best major golf in The Open with a playoff loss at St. Andrews in 2015 among a trio of top-six finishes.Bryson DeChambeau (+3500)This number jumped off the page for me.On one hand I get it; his Open Championship history isn’t great, his caddie recently left him, and his meltdown that occurred down the stretch at the U.S. Open is still fresh in everyone’s mind. He’s also played well twice at Royal St. George’s, taking 10th in 2003 and ninth in 2011.The approach game struggled a few months back, but he’s got the ball-striking on track in the past couple events, leading to top 20s at Colonial and the U.S. Open.Sergio Garcia (+7000)One player that jumped out to me as I started my research for this event last week was Sergio Garcia. While driving of the golf ball has been a concern for Leishman at times, he gained 4.5 strokes off the tee in his most recent start at The Travelers; indicating that his driver may have come around.If Leishman gets himself in the mix on Sunday, he has the mettle to go toe to toe with an elite player and win the Claret Jug.Scottie Scheffler (+5000)Scheffler has been a marvel at Majors this season, posting a T-18 at the Masters before going T-8 and T-7 at the PGA Championship and U.S Open. Bezuidenhout obviously has the game — and his wedges around the green are some of the best in the world, which should suit him well this week.At some point, it’s going to click for four rounds on a bigger stage and I think a major outside the U.S. seems like the right week for it.Kevin Kisner Top-10 finish (+1400)It has been an ugly season for Kevin Kisner, which featured a stretch of six missed cuts in seven events prior to the U.S. Open. I’m happy to take the form, momentum and positive course fit at double-digit odds for Kisner to finish on the first page of the leaderboard.Lee Westwood Top-5 finish (+1000)At the 2019 Open Championship, we saw Shane Lowry earn an emotional victory in his home country of Ireland.This week, Lee Westwood will be looking to do the same thing in England.The 48-year-old Englishman has had an excellent season with two second-place finishes back in March. He’s now 6-for-6 in making cuts at major championships, including a T-12 this past April at Augusta and T-6 at this very event back in 2019.MacIntyre is strong off the tee and around the green, both of which will be hugely important this week at Royal St. George’s. In eight career starts, he has five top-30 finishes at The Open Championship.While he may not have the firepower it takes to win a major at this stage of his career, his consistent ball striking and experience across the pond should be able to catapult him into the top 30, where he’s +300 at DraftKings.Tyrrell Hatton (-120) over Bryson DeChambeauGimme the whole world against Bryson this week.I’ve written this before, but one of the ways I believe golf betting can (and, fingers crossed, will) improve in coming years is the implementation of matchups for any player against any other player — whether this means through balanced odds as it’s done now or a “point spread,” which would allow you to take, say, an amateur against Jon Rahm at +9.5 strokes over two days or something like that. Such implementation would offer a true way to fade players that you really don’t like on a given week.Of course, for major championships, more of these H2Hs are available, so we’re able to play such fades, to an extent.I believe that every advantage DeChambeau owns in an event like the U.S. Open is neutralized this week. Throw in a new caddie and the extra noise rattling around in his head right now and he’s a major fade for me.Among the players he’s matched up against, I don’t mind taking Tony Finau, Patrick Cantlay, Dustin Johnson or even Adam Scott, but in my 1-156 ranking of the entire Open Championship field, the biggest discrepancy I have between DeChambeau and a player he’s matched up against is with Hatton, whom I expect to linger on the leaderboard throughout the weekend.Tyrrell Hatton (+105) over Collin MorikawaThis is simply a play where I think the wrong player is favored for this particular event.Hatton has shown over his career to be one of the best links-style golfers in the world, and while he hasn’t shown up too many times at most Major Championships, he does have two top-10 finishes at The Open.Morikawa is an elite player, but we have seen that this layout can play much differently than what TOUR players see weekly in the states, and it often takes multiple appearances to post a top finish.If the winds kick up as expected and the course begins to dry out, I trust Hatton to figure out how to grind his game for a solid finish better than Morikawa.Brooks Koepka (-110) over Xander SchauffeleKoepka is quite easily the best major championship player in golf.At the U.S. Open, Koepka came into the event in relatively poor form and more than delivered in relation to his price tag.

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