2021 John Deere Classic Picks: Our Best Outrights, Sleepers ...

He’s coming in off a week at the Rocket Mortgage where he gained 5.5 strokes ball-striking against a slightly stronger field, and if he does that again he will be in contention throughout the weekend.Zach Johnson (+4300)ZJ’s course history at TPC Deere Run simply cannot be ignored.With four top-5 finishes in his past seven trips to the course and a win back in 2012, he contends more often than he doesn’t at the John Deere Classic.Normally, I would dismiss his course history considering he hasn’t won since the 2015 Open Championship, but this season, we have seen some older golfers win after a long layoff.Additionally, the Cedar Rapids, Iowa, native gained 4.5 strokes on approach in his most recent start at the Travelers and finished 25th despite losing an uncharacteristic 1.5 strokes with the flat stick.Johnson is an easy golfer to overlook in 2021, but he can absolutely contend at this course.Russell Henley (+2000)This is probably the worst field we will see all season, hence why Henley is as short as he is. Despite the ugly number, he remains one of the better ball-strikers teeing it up this week and is coming in hot, posting back-to-back strong finishes at the Travelers and U.S Open.Over his past 48 rounds in this field, Henley ranks sixth in total strokes gained, second in SG: Approach and 10th in SG: Tee-to-Green. He’s coming off an MC at the Rocket Mortgage, but his previous four finishes were 36th-19th-13th-11th.I don’t love the fact that his results have moved in descending order in his past five starts, but I do like this number in the betting markets and certainly don’t mind him as a contrarian OAD play on a week when most of your fellow poolers will stick with the guys at the top.Jim Herman (+16000)Despite the weak field, longshots don’t tend to win at this event so I’m limiting my exposure down the board to just one play, Jim Herman at +16000.Herman is coming off a 25th and 26th in his last two starts, which is about as much form as we see from him. The 26-year-old is one of the best putters on TOUR, and not too long ago was thought of as an intriguing up-and-comer.Bentgrass greens are Hossler’s specialty, and it’s reasonable to expect him to gain plenty of strokes on the field this week.Additionally, the rest of Hossler’s game is surprisingly starting to come around. He’s also played this event twice and finished T-6 his last time out, so he’s shown he can get his way around TPC Deere Run.He hit it pretty well last week at the Rocket Mortgage, and I expect that to continue this week.Alex Smalley Top-30 Finish (+500)The Duke product is an automatic Sleeper with a pair of top fives on the Forme Tour punctuating 10 top 25s in his last 11 starts across three tours.