2021 U.S. Open Picks & Best Bets: Outrights, Sleepers, Longshots ...

Torrey Pines will be the site for the 2021 edition of the tournament and the field couldn’t be more stacked.Jon Rahm is the betting favorite at +1050 to win the tournament, but the top of the board is a real murderers’ row as Bryson DeChambeau (+1500), Dustin Johnson (+1500), Xander Schauffele (+1500), Brooks Koepka (+1900), Jordan Spieth (+1900), Rory McIlroy (+2100), Patrick Cantlay (+2200), Tony Finau (+2200) and Justin Thomas (+2250) are all sitting under +2500.Check out below for our favorite outrights, longshots, props and matchup bets for the 2021 U.S. Open:Paul Casey (+4500)At these odds, this one might seem like a bit of a stretch, but consider that Casey actually owns a shorter pre-tourney number than Hideki Matsuyama before the Masters (60/1) or Mickelson before the PGA Championship (250/1). Having spoken with Casey in multiple post-round interviews during the festivities at Kiawah, I can easily see him drawing some late-career inspiration from Mickelson, which should be a real thing this week.In a year that’s already seen some major championship surprises to varying degrees, don’t be afraid if another one is lurking at Torrey Pines.Patrick Reed (+2900)I’ll look to this year’s Torrey Pines champ, Patrick Reed, at +2900 for my favorite outright bet. He has two top-5 finishes in three trips, and all three of his appearances have resulted in top-20 finishes.The combination of great form, a course that clearly fits his game, and a rare strong number make Rory McIlroy stand out to start the week.Brooks Koepka (+1900)This one is pretty simple: Bet Brooks Koepka at major championships.Yes, he missed the cut last week at Congaree. He’s not going to win but is worth a look in the place bet markets as a top-20 or top-40 play or as a first-round leader if he gets a good tee draw.Kim is usually one of the longest hitters, if not the longest, in Japan and just blew away his U.S. Open qualifying field in California to get into this event. Torrey Pines will certainly play a lot different this week for the U.S. Open, but Scott did finish 10th at the Farmers Insurance Open this year and has excellent course history including a second-place finish here in 2019.At this stage of his career, the Aussie probably isn’t winning any birdie-fests but he can still grind as well as anyone when he is on his game. Given how well he has been striking the ball, I’m willing to take one more gamble on the putter at this number.Tony Finau Top-10 Finish (+205)There are plenty of reasons not to list Top-10 Tony (aka Top-Five Tony) at the top of any list of fave picks for this week’s event – 140 of ‘em, actually, the number of events since his lone victory at the 2016 Puerto Rico Open – but it’s similarly impossible to resist the potential upside.Since the beginning of 2018, he’s finished top-10 in 9-of-13 major championship starts. If you want to fade Finau as an outright, I can certainly understand that, but don’t ignore him for prop bets and other formats.I’ve always liked how his game matches up with Torrey and it could – finally – all come to fruition this week.Chan Kim (+300) & Cameron Young (+500) Top-40 FinishMy favorite props for this event will mostly be focus on bombers near the bottom of the board, as I’m hoping the U.S. Open tradition where length trumps all hold up on Torrey Pines.Both Kim and Young hit the ball a mile. He proved as much during his qualifier just south of Los Angeles, finishing as the medalist in the 90-man field that produced just five entrants into the event.Young actually qualified for the Farmers at Torrey this year and played well on the South Course, gaining 3.5 strokes tee-to-green in his round there. The U.S. Open at Torrey Pines feels like a perfect place for that to change.In his most recent start at Torrey Pines, Viktor Hovland finished tied for second place — although he was well behind the winner, Patrick Reed.The Norwegian has the ideal skillset to contend at the course: Hitting it long and straight off of the tee.