FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 17

Josh Allen ($8,800 on FanDuel): Fresh off an impressive showing against a strong New England defense, Allen is now averaging a league-high 24.7 FanDuel points per game, and he's projected for roughly that many points by numberFire's model this week versus Atlanta. The Bills are 14.5-point favorites, so there's admittedly some blowout risk despite a juicy matchup versus a Falcons defense that ranks 31st in schedule-adjusted pass defense, per numberFire's metrics. In Week 16, Burrow made headlines (and the perfect FanDuel lineup) following a ridiculous 525-yard, 4-touchdown beatdown of the Ravens, and we would love to see him chuck it 46 times again this week.However, the Bengals have often taken a conservative, run-heavy approach this season, and such a strategy would put a damper on this game as a whole. The Chiefs also rank 26th in adjusted rush defense (compared to 8th against the pass), so Cincy could also have success running the ball, too.But as Burrow showed last week, this clash oozes upside if we get the game environment we're hoping for. Since seeing a jump in passing game work in Week 13, Montgomery has enjoyed a 21.7% target share over the last four games, helping him to an average of 33.0 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets). However, volume and a positive game script should still favor Michel, and he could also get some work in the passing game against a defense that's 28th in adjusted FanDuel points allowed per target to running backs. Despite a "down" Week 16 game from a fantasy perspective because he didn't get in the end zone (16.3 points), Kupp eclipsed 100 yards for the 10th time this year and tallied double-digit receptions for the 5th time. Amazingly, Week 4 remains the only game all season in which Kupp didn't catch at least 7 passes and exceed 90 receiving yards. He was a true one-man wrecking crew with a 53.3% target share and 80.3% air yards share.Hopefully Brown remains the focus this week against Miami, a team that's still middle-of-the-pack in adjusted pass defense (16th) despite their recent win streak. Although Dallas has a tough pass defense, they're more of a neutral matchup for wide receivers, sitting 15th in adjusted FanDuel points allowed per target to the position. With how Tom Brady spreads the ball around, Tampa Bay's pass-catchers have alternated big games all campaign, and even with the Bucs still shorthanded, we shouldn't expect Antonio Brown to soak up more than half the targets every week.