FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 15 ...
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Summary
Across 76 single-game slate optimal lineups in my database since 2019 that have had a 50-plus-point over/under and a spread between 1.5 and 5.5 points, quarterbacks have finished as the MVP at a 48.7% rate, a bump up from the full-sample average of 47.0%. In his five games against top-13 adjusted pass defenses, Herbert has averaged 21.6 FanDuel points per game with 295.2 yards and 2.4 touchdowns while easily overperforming expectation relative to the defense's strength. Another notch in Herbert's favor is that across all five positions and underdog/favorite splits, the underdog quarterback is most likely to be the optimal MVP in comparable game scripts to this one (28.9%). Also, when the MVP in games like this has been an underdog, it's been the team's quarterback 57.9% of the time. In games with Allen and Mike Williams playing normal snaps (so, excluding Week 6 when Williams was limited and Week 14 without Allen), Allen has a 28.1% target share (10.8 targets per game) while Williams is at 20.8%.
As said here by https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/41517/fanduel-single-game-daily-fantasy-football-helper-week-15-thursday-night-chiefs-at-chargers