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FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 15 ...


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NFL
the Kansas City Chiefs
AFC
MVP
top-13
Mahomes
NEP
Mahomes'
-0.09
Chargers
Ekeler
Edwards-Helaire
CEH
Kelce


Austin Ekeler
Patrick Mahomes
FanDuel
Justin Herbert
Joshua Kelley
Justin Jackson
Keenan Allen
Mike Williams
Jared Cook
Jalen Guyton
Josh Palmer's
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Derrick Gore
Darrel Williams
Tyreek Hill
Travis Kelce
Byron Pringle
Demarcus Robinson
Josh Gordon
Mecole Hardman


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The New York Times
SOURCE: https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/41517/fanduel-single-game-daily-fantasy-football-helper-week-15-thursday-night-chiefs-at-chargers
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Summary

Across 76 single-game slate optimal lineups in my database since 2019 that have had a 50-plus-point over/under and a spread between 1.5 and 5.5 points, quarterbacks have finished as the MVP at a 48.7% rate, a bump up from the full-sample average of 47.0%. In his five games against top-13 adjusted pass defenses, Herbert has averaged 21.6 FanDuel points per game with 295.2 yards and 2.4 touchdowns while easily overperforming expectation relative to the defense's strength. Another notch in Herbert's favor is that across all five positions and underdog/favorite splits, the underdog quarterback is most likely to be the optimal MVP in comparable game scripts to this one (28.9%). Also, when the MVP in games like this has been an underdog, it's been the team's quarterback 57.9% of the time. In games with Allen and Mike Williams playing normal snaps (so, excluding Week 6 when Williams was limited and Week 14 without Allen), Allen has a 28.1% target share (10.8 targets per game) while Williams is at 20.8%.

As said here by https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/41517/fanduel-single-game-daily-fantasy-football-helper-week-15-thursday-night-chiefs-at-chargers