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NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Expert Lineups & Strategy 12 ...

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Smith and Burks
JaVale McGee
Golden State
Jrue Holiday.
Mason Plumlee
10,300)The Kings
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Jayson Tatum
Jaylen Brown
Marcus Smart
Tristan Thompson
Daniel Theis
Robert Williams
Jeff Teague
Brad Stevens
Aaron Holiday
Myles Turner
Malcolm Brogdon
T.J. Warren
Domantas Sabonis
Immanuel Quickley
Dennis Smith
Omari Spellman
Obi Toppin
Alec Burks
Frank Ntilikina
Tom Thibodeau
Julius Randle
R.J. Barrett
Mitchell Robinson
Nerlens Noel
Kevin Knox
Reggie Bullock
Kevin Love
Isaac Okoro
Kevin Porter Jr.
Dylan Windler
Matthew Dellavedova
Larry Nance Jr.
Cedi Osman
Dante Exum
Andre Drummond
Collin Sexton
Darius Garland
Lauri Markkanen
Zach LaVine
Coby White
Wendell Carter
Tomas Satoransky
Wendell Carter Jr.
Nikola Jokic
Bradley Beal
Thomas Bryant
Russell Westbrook
Marquese Chriss
Alen Smailagic
Steve Kerr’s
Stephen Curry
Andrew Wiggins
Kelly Oubre
James Wiseman
Kevin Durant
DeMarcus Cousins
Steph Curry
Derrick Rose
Blake Griffin
Jahlil Okafor
Killian Hayes
Delon Wright
Saddiq Bey
Josh Jackson
Jerami Grant
Mason Plumlee
Draymond Green
Kyle Lowry
Pascal Siakam
Fred VanVleet
Aron Baynes
Chris Boucher
Joel Embiid
Alex Len
O.G. Anunoby
Furkan Korkmaz
Ben Simmons
Tobias Harris
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Khris Middleton
Jimmy Butler
Bam Adebayo
Tyler Herro
Goran Dragic
Andre Iguodala
Duncan Robinson
Nikola Vucevic
Al Horford
Aaron Gordon
George Hill
Mike Muscala
Hamidou Diallo
Theo Maledon
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Darius Bazley
Aleksej Pokusevski
Brandon Ingram
Lonzo Ball
Eric Bledsoe
Zion Williamson
Devin Booker
Chris Paul
Deandre Ayton
Steven Adams
Karl-Anthony Towns
Josh Okogie
Jake Layman
Juancho Hernangomez
Naz Reid
Malik Beasley
Anthony Edwards
Marcus Morris
Paul George
Lou Williams
Ivica Zubac
Kawhi Leonard
Mike Malone
Jamal Murray
Michael Porter
De’Aaron Fox
Richaun Holmes
Hassan Whiteside
Marvin Bagley
Tyrese Haliburton
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Golden State
San Antonio
New Orleans
Oklahoma City
Zion Williamson

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Smart only has a 13 percent usage rate while averaging 34 minutes per game so far, but he’s averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute in 13 games without Walker over the last two seasons and he contributes in a variety of ways, so I’m not too concerned about the usage.The frontcourt is messy and tough to trust as we have Tristan Thompson starting alongside Daniel Theis. Theis, meanwhile, has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute since the start of last season but he’s only averaged 21 minutes per game this season as Robert Williams is also in the center rotation. The problem is that he’s only averaging about 23 minutes per game and, because Brad Stevens staggers his starters’ minutes, he’s playing a large percentage of his minutes alongside Tatum, so he isn’t even the alpha with the second unit.Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Jayson Tatum ($8,800)Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Marcus Smart ($5,900)Victor Oladipo was a late scratch on Sunday, but he isn’t on the injury report today. He’s averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute since last season, but he’s a poor shooter who is capable of producing some truly awful fantasy games. It never feels good to rely on him, but he’s a strong value tonight as he’s not priced for most of the Knicks’ backcourt to be sidelined.Julius Randle and R.J. Barrett are playing huge minutes, averaging 35.7 and 36.6 minutes per game through the first three games of the season. If you’re looking to leverage against Robinson in large field tournaments, Nerlens Noel is his back-up and should see a bump in playing time whenever Robinson is in foul trouble.Kevin Knox and Reggie Bullock should see increased playing time with so many players sidelined, but it’s tough to trust either of them as anything more than secondary value options because they both produce fewer than 0.75 DraftKings points per minute.Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Elfrid Payton ($5,500), Mitchell Robinson ($5,600), Julius Randle ($8,200)Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Elfrid Payton ($4,800), Mitchell Robinson ($4,900), Julius Randle ($7,700), R.J. Barrett ($6,200)Cleveland is also short-handed for tonight’s game as they will be without all of Kevin Love, Isaac Okoro, Kevin Porter Jr., Dylan Windler and Matthew Dellavedova. He’s averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute over that span and he should play 34-35 minutes tonight assuming no foul trouble or blowout. LaVine has averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute since the start of last season and he looks like a strong mid-range option tonight.Markkanen, Coby White and Wendell Carter all come with plenty of upside for their price points, though they won’t have the best median projections compared to other players on the slate. If we expect Satoransky to play about 22 minutes and Exum to play about 27 minutes, they will project similarly at the same price point, but Exum will get a lot more ownership because he’s starting (hypothetically).Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Zach LaVine ($8,400)Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Zach LaVine ($7,500), Wendell Carter Jr. He’s been excellent through his first two games with the Wizards, posting a 30.4 percent usage rate, 17.6 percent rebounding rate and 49.1 percent assist rate while averaging 1.49 DraftKings points per minute. Curry has averaged 1.47 DraftKings points per minute with a 34.5 percent usage rate in 1,013 minutes played without either of Kevin Durant or DeMarcus Cousins on the floor since the start of the 2018-19 season.Wiggins seems to have the playing time edge over Oubre early in the season, which makes me prefer him even though I expect both players to be a coin flip for most of the season as far as who has the better game any given night. Griffin has played 34-35 minutes in regulation in each of his first two games this season and, while I don’t expect him to knock down eight three-pointers like he did in his last game, he should have success tonight.Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Blake Griffin ($6,900), Mason Plumlee ($5,700)Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Blake Griffin ($6,900)The Raptors are fully healthy for their game tonight against the Sixers. Both players are high-floor options given their average production and playing time, they just don’t stand out as top plays on the slate.Fred VanVleet is a little more volatile as he is typically going to be the third scoring option offensively, but we should expect 34-36 minutes from him in most games and he has averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute since last season. He’s playing about 36 minutes per game and has averaged 0.78 DraftKings points per minute since the start of last season. Embiid is listed as probable after being a late scratch last game and the only other player on the injury report is Furkan Korkmaz who is out.I don’t love anything from the Sixers tonight, as they really only have three trustworthy DFS producers and they all rank behind other players at their price points and/or positions for me.Embiid is the most appealing option from the main trio as he averages about 1.5 DraftKings points per minute and should play 32-34 minutes assuming he is healthy. Middleton has averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute since last season while Holiday has averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute in his first 91 minutes with the Bucks.Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,800), Khris Middleton ($7,700)Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000), Khris Middleton ($7,800), Jrue Holiday ($6,400)The Heat have listed Jimmy Butler as doubtful, so we should be able to find some value here against a fast-paced Milwaukee team.Bam Adebayo is the starting point for me as he averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute in 14 games without Butler last season compared to 1.20 DraftKings points per minute with Butler on the floor. Bazley has only averaged 0.77 DraftKings points per minute since the start of last season, but he is a young player who seems to be improving and he’s averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute so far this year including the preseason.One other value piece to look to tonight is Aleksej Pokusevski. He’s averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute since last season, but he’s a player whose game-to-game production can vary drastically since he’s an inconsistent shooter. He’s coming from the Bucks, though, where he averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute in 45 games with Giannis and Middleton active last season, so it isn’t like he’s someone that doesn’t have a track record of producing even when he’s playing with higher usage players. There is volatility and a low floor here and those are typically great players to target after they’ve burned the field a couple of times.Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Zion Williamson ($8,100), Brandon Ingram ($8,200)Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Zion Williamson ($8,600), Brandon Ingram ($8,500), Eric Bledsoe ($4,800)The Suns are healthy and there isn’t much to be interested in here outside of the main trio of Devin Booker, Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton.Booker played 38.2 minutes against the Kings on Saturday, which was the last competitive game the Suns played. Leonard has averaged 1.39 DraftKings points per minute with a 31.5 percent usage rate in 39 regular season games played alongside George. If Leonard sits, George looks even better as he has averaged 1.43 DraftKings points per minute in 12 games without Leonard.My interest in the Clippers is mostly limited to those two, assuming Leonard plays, but there are a couple of FanDuel specific values in Lou Williams and Ivica Zubac. They don’t play enough minutes to be true priorities on FanDuel since so many players are underpriced, but they do offer plenty of upside at their respective salaries.Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Kawhi Leonard ($9,400), Paul George ($8,500)Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Paul George ($7,600), Lou Williams ($4,600), Ivica Zubac ($4,200)Jokic has been an absolute monster this season and he’s coming off another huge game last night.

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