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NFL DFS: Conference Championship DraftKings + FanDuel Picks ...

PublishedonByMatt Savoca’s Daily Fantasy Football Matchups Column
NFL Playoffs
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Green Bay PackersBuffalo Bills
the Awesemo
Brate 75%-to-44%
PicksGreen Bay Packers
the Packers’ Super Bowl
the Awesemo NFL
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Tom Brady
Josh Allen
Leonard Fournette
Ronald Jones
Mike Evans
Chris Godwin
Aaron Jones
Ronald Jones’
A.J. Dillon
Jamaal Williams
Rob Gronkowski
Cameron Brate
Robert Tonyan
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Jaire Alexander
Tom Brady‘s
Aaron Rodgers

details).The X

Tampa Bay

Awesemo’s Game-Adjusted Pace

Kansas City

the Conference Championships

Positivity     39.08%   
   Negativity   60.92%
The New York Times
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Higher rankings from both players indicate a higher likelihood of efficient play, thus a higher probability of fantasy points.The X-axis is Early-Down Air Yards divided by team game-script-adjusted plays per second (using Awesemo’s Game-Adjusted Pace from the Advanced Stats Page). The Packers rank second on the slate in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, but Brady ranks second in expected fantasy points per game and shouldn’t have an issue reaching salary-based expectations. The rankings are always specific to the slate, meaning if a player or team is ranked No. 1 at a specific metric, they may not necessarily be ranked No. 1 in the NFL, but they are for this specific slate.This game features four hyper-productive receivers, led by Adams, who ranks second on the slate (and in the NFL) in expected fantasy points and fantasy points scored per game, but both Evans and Godwin rank in the top six. If a player scores more fantasy points (represented by the dots in the bar chart below) than expected, that means the player is either talented or lucky (or both) and may have unsustainable fantasy production based on their usage.This chart measures Expected Fantasy Points (DraftKings scoring) per Game, indicated by each player’s bar, as well as fantasy points per game, indicated by the dot. This chart measures Expected Fantasy Points (DraftKings scoring) per Game, indicated by each player’s bar, as well as fantasy points per game, indicated by the dot. Williams and Dillon make for solid leverage plays off of Aaron Jones, but they’re all extremely thin plays, as the Tampa Bay defense ranks best on the slate (and second in the NFL) in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs. If looking for a low-salary receiver to pair with Rodgers, first look to Robert Tonyan, but Marquez Valdes-Scantling could be a decent contrarian option as well.Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL DFS Tournament PicksGreen Bay Packers NFL DFS Tournament PicksIn daily fantasy football, depending on the size and type of contest you’re playing, it’s often advantageous to expand your player pool to less-utilized offensive players.

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