Week 16 NFL Fantasy Championship Week RB Breakdown: David ...

In his 10 games since change-of-pace back Tarik Cohen (knee, IR) suffered a season-ending injury in Week 3, Montgomery is No. 1 at the position with a 79% snap rate.With that kind of playing time, it would be hard for him not to put up some big performances at some point, especially with his overall usage: In his 10 Cohen-less games, Montgomery is Nos. 2 & 4 with 17.1 expected fantasy points per game and a 34% market share of team opportunities (minimum of six games, per RotoViz NFL Player Statistical Summary).What Montgomery has done over the past month isn’t just a short-term outburst: He has been positioned for success for most of the season.And there’s no reason to think that he won’t keep on rolling this week. In Week 14, Bernard disappointed with 3-8-0 rushing and 3-15-0 receiving on a paltry 24% snap rate in a 30-7 loss to the Cowboys, but last week he had his best game of the season with 25-81-1 rushing and 1-14-1 receiving on a supermajoritive 68% snap rate in a triumphant 27-17 win over the divisional rival Steelers.Also, I doubt “supermajoritive” is a real word, but it should be.Since Mixon entered the league in 2017, Bernard has been serviceable at worst in his 12 games without him (per RotoViz Game Splits App).His usage splits with and without Mixon are telling.As bad as the Bengals offense is, and as mediocre as Bernard has been this season, it’s still hard to ignore a back with 16.8 opportunities per game.Bernard is a low-end RB2 with upside in season-long leagues and the No. 1 back in the SportsGeek Model for DraftKings.In this section, I highlight some running backs I think will outperform expectations and whom I especially like as upside season-long and DFS tournament plays.Austin Ekeler, Chargers (-3.5) vs. Broncos (49 O/U): In his six full games with quarterback Justin Herbert, Ekeler has impressed overall, even with two mediocre performances over the past three weeks.An elite receiver, Ekeler is No. 2 among all backs with 49 air yards and yards after catch (AirYAC) per game (minimum of six games).AirYAC is a leading indicator of fantasy production and can be found in the RotoViz NFL Player Statistical Summary.Full disclosure: I’m betting against head coach Anthony Lynn’s Chargers, against whom road underdogs are 15-8-1 against the spread (ATS), good for a 25.2% return on investment (ROI, per our Bet Labs database). Rams (47 O/U): In his three games since fully returning to action in Week 13, Carson is 40-204-1 rushing and 8-73-1 receiving with a backfield-high 52% snap rate and 30% opportunity share. My thoughts be bloody or be nothing worth!In his three games since the unfortunate Week 12 “Kendall Hinton” incident, Gordon is a pseudo-dominant 39-260-2 rushing and 8-54-0 receiving.Darrell Henderson, Rams (+1.5) at Seahawks (47 O/U): The Rams will be without No. 1 back and future superstar Cam Akers (ankle) — or should I say “Cam Anklers,” nailed it — so Henderson seems likely to lead the backfield.