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What I Learned While Doing Projections For All 32 Teams (2021 ...

Chase Edmonds
Atlanta Falcons
Buffalo Bills
WR54.Carolina Panthers
Giovani Bernard‘s
Higgins WR24
Detroit Lions
Amon-Ra St. Brown
TE5.Green Bay Packers
Kansas City Chiefs
2020.Las Vegas Raiders
Minnesota Vikings
New England Patriots
New Orleans Saints
Taysom Hill
New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles
Pittsburgh Steelers
the Raheem Mostert/
Deebo Samuel 75 percent
Washington Football Team
Apple Podcasts
Google Podcasts

Amari Cooper
Robert Woods
Arizona Cardinals
James Conner
Larry Fitzgerald
DeAndre Hopkins
Christian Kirk
Dirk Koetter
Steve Sarkisian
Arthur Smith
Derrick Henry
Julio Jones
Kyle Pitts
Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson
Devin Singletary
Zack Moss
Josh Allen
Matt Breida
Christian McCaffrey
Terrace Marshall
D.J. Moore
Justin Fields
Tarik Cohen
Damien Williams
David Montgomery
Darnell Mooney
Allen Robinson
Jimmy Graham
Joe Mixon
Zac Taylor
Tee Higgins
Tyler Boyd
Nick Chubb
Kareem Hunt
Odell Beckham
Ezekiel Elliott
CeeDee Lamb
Michael Gallup
Blake Jarwin
Dalton Schultz
Melvin Gordon
Javonte Williams
Courtland Sutton
Jerry Jeudy
Todd Gurley
Tyrell Williams
Anthony Lynn’s
Breshad Perriman
Quintez Cephus
T.J. Hockenson
Aaron Rodgers
Kylin Hill
Aaron Jones
Jonathan Taylor
Marlon Mack
Nyheim Hines
Jordan Wilkins
T.Y. Hilton
Michael Pittman
Parris Campbell
Trevor Lawrence‘s
Joe Burrow
Travis Etienne
Marvin Jones
Laviska Shenault
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Sammy Watkins
Tyreek Hill
Travis Kelce
Josh Jacobs
DeAndre Washington
Jalen Richard
Henry Ruggs
Marquise Brown
Darren Waller
Keenan Allen
Mike Williams
Cam Akers
Darrell Henderson
Matthew Stafford
Sean McVay
Gerald Everett
Tyler Higbee
Will Fuller
Jaylen Waddle
DeVante Parker
Mike Gesicki‘s
Irv Smith
Adam Thielen
Kyle Rudolph‘s
Justin Jefferson
Cam Newton
Mac Jones
Jameis Winston
Michael Thomas
Adam Trautman
Daniel Jones
Kenny Golladay
Evan Engram
Kadarius Toney
Saquon Barkley
Tevin Coleman
Michael Carter
Corey Davis
Jamison Crowder
Elijah Moore
Miles Sanders
Nick Sirianni
DeVonta Smith
Dallas Goedert
Zach Ertz
Najee Harris
Diontae Johnson
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Trey Lance
Jimmy Garoppolo
Trey Sermon
Brandon Aiyuk
Russell Wilson
DK Metcalf
Tyler Lockett
WR2.Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tom Brady
Ronald Jones 178
Leonard Fournette 147
Giovani Bernard 42
Vaughn 14
Arther Smith
A.J. Brown
Anthony Firkser
Antonio Gibson
J.D. McKissic
Curtis Samuel
Scott Turner
Joe Brady


Cole Kmet
Tampa Bay


Los Angeles
Los Angeles Rams
New York
TE17.New York
San Francisco

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It’s to make sure your heart hasn’t taken you too far in the wrong direction, whether it be raising a player up your board that you like or moving one down that you dislike.There are some who’ve worked on models for years where it spits out projections based on them, but what I do is go through each team individually, look at the past tendencies of the head coach, offensive coordinator, look at what they’ve done with their personnel and how it may affect the way they approach the game, as well as player benchmarks.Projections aren’t a perfect process, because there are some opinions inserted, but it’s a much better gauge than simply sitting down and putting names in order, because that’s nothing but opinion. I projected the Panthers wide receivers for a massive 394 targets, though none of them came out higher than WR18 in the projections. If there’s a team that can churn out three top-36 wide receivers, it’s the Bengals, who I have projected for 644 pass attempts. Initial projections came in Chase WR21, Higgins WR24, and Tyler Boyd WR38.Cleveland Browns: For as good as Nick Chubb is and projecting him to average 5.0 yards per carry with 10.5 rushing touchdowns, he still comes in as the RB10 due to the presence of Kareem Hunt. Not a single wide receiver eclipsed 85 targets in the projections, which is certainly problematic for someone like Henry Ruggs. Even projecting him at wide receiver, he’d come in at No. 11 on that list.Los Angeles Chargers: If there’s one player who shocked me while going through projections, it was Ekeler popping up as the RB8. It certainly helps that he’s one of just two running backs (Christian McCaffrey being the other) projected for 100-plus targets, but it’s also important to note that I only projected him for 200 carries. The exit of Gerald Everett has allowed Tyler Higbee to get into the 90-100 target territory, which netted him TE10 in my initial projections.Miami Dolphins: Despite bumping the Dolphins pass attempts to 621 for this 17-game season, I can’t find more than 105 targets for any one pass catcher in this offense, which is problematic for stability on a week-to-week basis, though Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle should be valued over DeVante Parker, who wound up at WR62 in my initial projections. I know they were both top-12 last year, but Thielen caught 14 touchdowns on 74 receptions, something that’s not happening again.New England Patriots: They’re the only other team I’m waiting to do projections on (Texans were the other), as the difference in offense run with Cam Newton and Mac Jones is night and day, so we need to pay attention to this battle as the offseason progresses.New Orleans Saints: As of now, I’m preparing for Jameis Winston to start for the Saints, though Taysom Hill will steal some attempts, along with a lot of goal-line work. Even projecting him at 152 targets, he came in at WR7. Even projecting Jones to take a massive leap and finish with 26 passing touchdowns, I couldn’t get Kenny Golladay into the top-20 wide receivers in projections. I want to like Miles Sanders, especially with Hurts under center, but everything the Eagles have done under Nick Sirianni screams timeshare, so I had to cap him at 215 carries and 59 targets which landed him at RB18 in the projections. Aiyuk can certainly get there by scoring eight-plus touchdowns, but I just can’t project him there.Seattle Seahawks: Russell Wilson may be boring, but there’s a reason he’s continually finishing as a top-10 quarterback, including five top-six finishes over the last seven years. Tyler Lockett came in at WR17 in the projections, but he’s not someone I’d draft there, as he’s much more volatile than you’d want your WR2.Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The good ol’ reliable Tom Brady checked in at QB9 in the projections, which is a projection I feel good about, though I can’t say the same about the running backs in Tampa Bay. I have them projected for 381 carries, which broke down like this: Ronald Jones 178, Leonard Fournette 147, Giovani Bernard 42, and Ke’Shawn Vaughn 14. It’s possible they all share the targets (and my projections highlight exactly that) and limit the appeal of all of them, which would mean none finish as a top-24 option.Tennessee Titans: The loss of Arther Smith changes everything for this offense, as they ranked No. 31 and No. 30 in pass attempts during the two years under him. Anthony Firkser was someone who could’ve flirted with 80-plus targets, but the arrival of Jones curbs our enthusiasm.Washington Football Team: It’s easy to say you love Antonio Gibson going into 2021, but it’s another thing to look at the projections and figure out where his production will come from.

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