A tropical weather system is developing near Florida. Is this a sign of a busy season ahead?

If or when it develops sustained winds equal to or above 39 mph, the storm will be named Arthur.For the 6th straight season in a row we may have an early season (before June 1st) tropical system form. pic.twitter.com/6GBBUn0fZNIf Arthur indeed forms in the coming days, this would be the sixth straight season with early tropical development occurring before the official start of Atlantic hurricane season on June 1. "While several of the storms that have formed in the pre-season in recent years have formed over anomalously warm water, perhaps due to climate change, this system near south Florida is actually an exception," he said.Referring to the graphic below, Klotzbach said, "Here's a plot showing current sea surface anomalies and the approximate forecast track of this disturbance. "These are the exact kind of storms that became much more commonplace with the development of microwave sensors that allow for better detection of weak warm cores," he noted.Kieran Bhatia, a hurricane and climate researcher and former postdoctoral fellow at Princeton University, cited the same general research and agrees with Klotzbach: "All this is evidence that it is very hard to produce meaningful trends that conclude earlier season storms are more likely due to climate change." With that said, Bhatia said there is building consensus that a warming climate will lead to more intense storms in the future, as well as higher storm surge due to sea level rise and higher rainfall totals due to warmer air temperatures.