Aftershock: If coronavirus swells in a second wave later this year, will the nation be ready?

Paul Romer, a Nobel Prize-winning economist, envisions a day when all Americans are tested regularly for COVID-19, and they present proof when dining out or visiting a dentist.Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, said if a "big peak" of coronavirus floods hospitals this winter, "We have the potential here to go through days we have not seen since World War II ... “My take is you have to keep an open mind and prepare for all eventualities.”Monto and others point out that COVID-19’s threat could be blunted by the development of a vaccine or a treatment.But many epidemiologists share the view of Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, who testified during a congressional hearing Tuesday: “The idea of having treatments available or a vaccine to facilitate reentry of students into the fall term would be something that would be a bit of a bridge too far.” Amid coronavirus: AP exams went online and had tech problems. “I think it’s inevitable that we’re going to have a second, if not a third, wave” because of the nation’s “erratic and disorganized policies.” “The biggest single failure was the lack of testing in this country,” agreed Eric Toner, senior scholar with Johns Hopkins University’s Center for Health Security. But Romer said that raises a tragic question: "Are we willing to accept 2,000 deaths a day for months on end?" “The longer it goes on, the more it’s going to imply we’re just not coming back to the same place,” agreed Ken Rogoff, economics professor at Harvard and former chief economist for the International Monetary Fund.While declining to give the nation a letter grade for preparedness, Rogoff said COVID-19 has undermined much of the planet's economic structure. By contrast, Italy and the United States – which were slow to test or take precautions – have suffered heavy casualties and economic damage.“The No. 1 thing is to get the first wave over, and then prepare for the second one,” Camerer said. With COVID-19, he said, "There are ways of looking at this destabilization where it does not restablize."Thomas Frey, a futurist and founder of the DaVinci Institute in Colorado, said the pandemic may be “the most explosive crisis in all of world history” — a potential paradigm shift not just economically, but culturally.Fundamental gestures, such as the handshake, are likely to vanish or change.Yet Frey also questioned whether worldwide “hysteria” over the disease is rational, and he suggested that shutting down a country may be over-reactive unless the death toll borders on a million.“It’s a bizarre balancing act we’re trying to maneuver,” he said.