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Climate change may make extreme hurricane rainfall five times more likely, study says


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Jeff Berardelli
Emily Vosper
Maria
Kevin Trenberth
Clausius Clapeyron
Arturo Garcia-Costas
Irma


Caribbean
Puerto Rican


Caribbean
Earth


Hurricane Alley


Louisiana
the Dominican Republic, Haiti
Cuba
U.S.
Puerto Rico
Bahamas
Guam
Maine


Hurricane Laura
Hurricane Maria

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The New York Times
SOURCE: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/climate-change-may-make-extreme-hurricane-rainfall-five-times-more-likely-study-says/
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Summary

Before Hurricane Laura battered Louisiana, it drenched the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba with deadly rainfall, killing at least 23 people outside the U.S. Because of their mountainous terrain and vulnerability to flash flooding and landslides, the Caribbean islands are particularly susceptible to a warming climate, which causes tropical systems to get considerably wetter.According to a new study, "considerably" may mean a 5 times greater likelihood of extreme hurricane rainfall in a warmer world."The findings are alarming and illustrate the urgent need to tackle global warming to reduce the likelihood of extreme rainfall events and their catastrophic consequences, particularly for poorer countries which take many years to recover," said lead author of the study, Emily Vosper, a researcher at the University of Bristol.A 2019 study showed Hurricane Maria produced the single largest maximum rainfall event since 1956 in Puerto Rico. The 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios were chosen because they are the warming goals that the Paris Climate Agreement endeavors to stay below.The results of the study show that in a 2°C warmer world, an event of similar size and location to Maria would be more than twice as likely, occurring once every 43 years rather than once every 100 years.For the Bahamas, the findings are even more dramatic, with a once-in-100-year storm becoming 4 to 5 times more likely in a 2°C scenario.In the Dominican Republic, a 100-year extreme hurricane rainfall in the present climate is projected to occur greater than three times more often – once every 30 years – in a 2°C warmer world. But under the more ambitious goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C, extreme hurricane rainfall events in the Dominican Republic would occur roughly once every 57 years – half as often as compared to the 2°C warming scenario.Vosper, the researcher, sees this as proof that taking efforts to limit climate change can make a real difference: "By focusing efforts to stabilise global warming to the more ambitious 1.5°C goal, we could dramatically reduce the likelihood of extreme hurricane rainfall events in the area."It should be noted that most scientists feel the ambitious goal of 1.5°C is not attainable and that we are more likely headed for close to 3°C of warming, especially if we do not take bold measures. "That's because one big storm can play the role of 4 or more smaller storms in moving heat" and striving for energy balance, said Trenberth.But the following key point is perhaps the most important of all in explaining why a warmer climate means more extreme hurricane rainfalls.

As said here by Jeff Berardelli