Coronavirus updates: 'Winter surge' still looks dire; no vaccine likely before election; 74k US lives can be saved with masks

Updated virus projections are bringing the long-feared "winter surge" of COVID-19 cases into focus as health experts warn an increasing number of cases in the U.S. will soon mean more deaths.The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's latest model updates for the U.S. released this week contain spots of good news: 74,000 lives can still be saved if mask use becomes nearly universal and increased testing may explain why more young people are testing positive.But the influential model still projects daily U.S. deaths will surpass 2,000 in January, even with states reimposing stricter orders.The guidance also called out North Dakota specifically for its current alarming death rate, following a well-documented lax approach to health mandates in the state: "North Dakota presently has one of the highest COVID-19 death rates in the world," a briefing on the model says. For updates in your inbox, subscribe to The Daily Briefing newsletter.An open letter from the frontrunner COVID-19 vaccine producer published Friday ends any expectations a vaccine might be available before Election Day.Pfizer Inc. CEO Albert Bourla's letter says the earliest the company could apply for authorization for its COVID-19 vaccine is the third week of November.The CEO of the other frontrunner, Moderna's Stéphane Bancel , said at a biotechnology conference on September 30 that it would not have enough safety data to apply for Food and Drug Administration authorization of its vaccine until November 25.The other two COVID-19 vaccine candidates in final stage clinical trials in the United States, Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca, are both on hold as possible adverse events are investigated.— Elizabeth WeiseAmericans living or working in long-term care facilities, including nursing homes and assisted care living centers, will receive COVID-19 vaccinations for free — if and when they become available, the Trump administration said Friday.The administration announced a partnership with the nation's two largest drug store chains, CVS and Walgreens, "to provide and administer" the vaccines with "no out-of-pocket costs" for the recipients.Trump, 74, vowed a vaccine would be available before the end of the year, despite his own federal health experts saying that timeline is highly unlikely, and that senior citizens would be "first in line."The president made the announcement at an event billed as "Protecting America's Seniors" in Fort Myers, Florida.