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Imperial College London
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Majid Ezzati
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Oliver Watson
covid-19
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Spain
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GEOFF CADDICK/AFP via Getty ImagesEngland, Wales and Spain suffered the biggest increases in deaths by all causes during the first wave of the covid-19 pandemic, while countries including New Zealand, Norway and Poland appear to have escaped relatively unscathed.The three worst-hit countries each saw around 100 “excess deaths” per 100,000 people between February and May, which researchers say was probably due to governments being slow to implement lockdowns and scale up testing and tracing.To arrive at the results, Majid Ezzati at Imperial College London and his colleagues took weekly death data from 2010 to early 2020 for 22 countries and used 16 models to factor in influences such as temperature, estimating how many deaths there would have been in a pandemic-free world for February to May. The researchers then compared those figures with official data for deaths by all causes, to arrive at excess deaths. “What puts England, Wales and Spain doing worst than other countries is this combination of long and intense – long period of impact and quite large rises,” says Ezzati.The UK government dropped international covid-19 death figures from its daily briefings in May, which it justified by saying comparisons were “difficult” due to differences in how countries report data.
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