Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on the coronavirus-ravaged economy - 60 Minutes

The head of the U.S. central banking system tells Scott Pelley how high he thinks unemployment will go, what tools the Fed still has to breathe life into the economy and what outcomes he's trying to avoid on the road to economic recovery.Jerome Powell shook Washington, Wall Street and the world this past week when he warned the pandemic crisis threatens "lasting damage" to American prosperity. He raised the specter of a "prolonged recession and weak recovery" if the federal government doesn't use all its power to support business and workers.Jerome Powell: I was really calling out a risk that I think is an important one for people to be cognizant of, the risk of longer-run damage to the economy. And really, the good news is that we have the tools to limit that longer-run damage by continuing to provide support to households and businesses as we get through this.Scott Pelley: What metrics are you looking at here hour by hour, day to day, to divine what the future is going to be?Jerome Powell: The thing that matters more than anything else is the medical metrics, frankly. Scott Pelley: As this period of time grows longer, what begins to happen to the economy?Jerome Powell: There's a real risk that if people are out of work for long periods of time, that their skills atrophy a little bit and they lose contact with the workforce. And that means that when the virus outbreak is behind us, the economy should be able to recover substantially.Scott Pelley: And what sort of support, in your view, do you think the Congress would want to consider?Jerome Powell: I don't give them advice on particular policies. Scott Pelley: What economic reality do the American people need to be prepared for?Jerome Powell: Well, I would take a more optimistic cut at that, if I could, and that is, this is a time of great suffering and difficulty. Scott Pelley: Can there be a recovery without a reasonably effective vaccine?Jerome Powell: Assuming there's not a second wave of the coronavirus, I think you'll see the economy recover steadily through the second half of this year. It's going to go away, and it's-- we're not going to see it again, hopefully, after a period of time.Chairman Powell says vaccine development is highly uncertain and until then, major industries will suffer.Jerome Powell: The parts that involve people being in the same place very close together. Those parts of the economy will be challenged until people feel really safe again.Scott Pelley: Sporting events, theaters?Jerome Powell: I would think those would be very difficult. Scott Pelley: If the economy reopens and the infection rate surges, what then?Jerome Powell: The government would have to reintroduce the social distancing measures. It should be a much shorter downturn than you would associate with the 1930s.Scott Pelley: You expect the third quarter to see growth?Jerome Powell: It's a reasonable expectation that there'll be growth in the second half of the year. Scott Pelley: What gives you hope in this dark time?Jerome Powell:.