Giant chessboard: Istanbul ship-spotters monitor moves for war

Bosphorus Strait ‘spies’ surveil geopolitical machinations as world powers deploy military assets around the globe.Istanbul, Turkey – A light snow falls on Istanbul as Yoruk Isik boards a ferry and climbs upstairs, passing up the cosy enclosed lower deck where tourists and commuters sip tea for the open-air top of the small boat.As the ferry embarks on its trip up the Bosphorus Strait, Isik pulls out a camera and begins snapping photos of a giant southbound cargo ship he recognises, one usually contracted to carry wheat purchased in Eastern Europe as humanitarian aid for Yemen.Hundreds of ships ply the strait each day, from giant oil tankers and container ships that dwarf the Ottoman mansions and mosques on the shore to naval destroyers and submarines moved around the world like pieces on a giant chessboard.The 50-year old Istanbul-born geopolitical analyst and ship-spotter always carries a camera and is constantly on the lookout for warships and civilian vessels he says are involved in “curious activities”.“When you are living your life in Istanbul, there is a sublayer of these events happening literally right next to you and most of these Istanbul residents, in their busy day, are not so aware of it,” Isik said.Vessels registered in places with unstable governments, or where authorities are known to not inspect cargo well, pique the interest of ship-spotters, as do those who seem to drop off the radar in heavily trafficked areas in the Mediterranean Sea. By keeping track of their movements, Isik and other ship-spotters are often able to predict new conflicts before global superpowers publicly announce them.His target on this day is a Russian Tapir-class naval landing ship, capable of carrying hundreds of troops and armoured vehicles, one of several that regularly make the trip from Russian Black Sea ports south to a Russian base in Tartus, Syria. All states are barred from sending through aircraft carriers, as well as submarines that are being deployed to a conflict.Unless there is an open war, Turkey must allow Black Sea powers to transit, which often means states it is indirectly at war with freely use the route.In 2015 – before Russia openly said it was jumping into the Syrian war on the government’s side against Turkey- and Western-backed rebels – Isik began noticing both civilian and military vessels carrying equipment to Syria.“Russia had started quickly and they could not get enough military ships, so they used civilian ships.