GOP?s midterm bet: Voters will care more about inflation than abortion

One week after the leak of a draft Supreme Court opinion that would eliminate the constitutional right to abortion, Republican candidates and strategists are increasingly confident that such a decision would not seriously harm the GOP’s chances of regaining House and Senate majorities come November, as Democrats have suggested it might.That belief is rooted in reams of polling, nearly all of it conducted before the leak, showing that economic challenges, particularly runaway inflation, are by far the most powerful force motivating voters this year, followed by crime and immigration — issues where Republicans believe they will have an enduring advantage. Alito Jr.’s draft opinion striking down Roe: downplay, divert and dodge — refocusing public attention on what they believe will be more potent issues.“If you come in here with the sky-is-falling argument, I would look around North Carolina and say it hasn’t,” said Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who won election in 2014 after supporting a law requiring pregnant people to get ultrasounds before an abortion.Tillis is not on the ballot this year, but the state’s other Senate seat is, as are dozens of legislative seats. In a May 3 speech to Emily’s List — a political action committee that helps elect Democratic female candidates who favor abortion rights — delivered just hours after Politico published Alito’s draft, she cast the election as “a fight not just to defend reproductive health care but a woman’s right to control her own destiny.”“It’s a fight we must win,” she said.Even in a state defined by its “Live Free or Die” approach to personal liberty, though, Republican candidates are betting that the issue simply will not be on the top of voters’ minds. Much more impactful come November, he said, will be the price of oil in a state where 80 percent of residents use it to heat their homes.A similar balancing act is on display in Nevada, where the leading Republican Senate candidate, former state attorney general Adam Laxalt, released a statement last week saying Alito’s opinion, if adopted, would “constitute an historic victory for the sanctity of life” while also asserting that abortion rights are “currently settled law in our state” — a reference to a 1990 voter referendum that ensured abortion rights up to 24 weeks of pregnancy and that can be undone only through another referendum.Democrats have signaled that calling the referendum “settled law” is not going to settle much of anything — citing Laxalt’s filing of public briefs as attorney general in support of other states’ much more restrictive laws, among other aspects of his record showing opposition to abortion rights.The Democratic incumbent, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, said at the Emily’s List conference that “there’s no doubt in my mind” that Republicans would seek to undermine the 1990 referendum and that Laxalt would “be an automatic vote for legislation punishing women for seeking an abortion.”But Republicans say the state-law backstop gives Laxalt some credibility in claiming that Nevada’s abortion laws are simply not at risk, thus allowing him to quickly pivot to other matters with more proven potency than abortion.“It’s not registering on issue polls,” said Josh Holmes, a McConnell ally whose firm, Cavalry, consults for Laxalt.