Here's how one expert says Trump's tax plan prevented a dreaded recession signal and overruled the latest yield-curve inversion

Paulsen's take boils down to one indisputable fact: Ten out of the 10 recessions since 1950 have been preceded by fiscal tightening — which he defines as a contraction in the US federal deficit as a percentage of nominal gross domestic product. He continued: "Currently, it is interesting that a mild inversion in the yield curve has caused so much widespread apprehension about recession risks when the direction of fiscal policy (which has a perfect 10 for 10 record of recession forecasting since 1950) is strongly signaling a low risk of recession!" Interestingly enough, Morgan Stanley thinks the positive market impact from Trump's tax plan will start to dwindle as critical provisions approach their expiration dates.