History Says Bloomberg 2020 Would Be a Sure Loser

By JEFF GREENFIELDNovember 11, 2019Jeff Greenfield is a five-time Emmy-winning network television analyst and author.If Michael Bloomberg is looking for evidence that a late entrant can win a presidential nomination, all he has to do is look back. Stevenson gave an acclaimed welcoming speech to delegates in Chicago, changed his mind, and won the nomination on the third ballot.Story Continued BelowBloomberg's surprise late entry into the 2020 race is a familiar story: The candidate who casts himself in the role of The Savior Who Is Waiting in the Wings is a quadrennial feature of presidential campaigns. Given the support Johnson had in the South and West, and the fears of some Northerners about a Catholic on the ticket, it’s plausible that a campaign by LBJ could have succeeded, had it gotten off to an earlier start.Eight years later, LBJ was actually president, and this time it was the Republican Party’s turn to yearn for a savior. Brown demonstrated that a late entrant can do well in the primaries while having no significant effect at all on the outcome of the race.One candidate managed to be both an early entrant and a latecomer. By taking a significant chunk of conservative votes, Thompson enabled John McCain to win the South Carolina primary with a three-point margin over Mike Huckabee, who had won the Iowa caucuses and drawn evangelicals to his campaign. Bush eight years earlier, ended questions about McCain’s support among Christian conservatives and set him up to win the Florida primary and effectively clinch his party’s presidential nomination.If Bloomberg is concerned about the rise of Elizabeth Warren, the Thompson campaign should prompt him to think very hard about the ramifications of getting into the 2020 race.