In Afghanistan, climate change complicates future prospects for peace

"If I could give back the man's money,” Fatemeh says, “I would keep my daughter next to me."And so they fled—to save Fariba, to search for land that could survive the next drought, and to escape U.S.-backed Afghan airstrikes that pounded Taliban fighters in nearby villages at night. Experts say drought, flood, avalanches, landslides, extreme weather, mass displacement, conflict, and child marriage—all of which already plague Afghanistan—are set to worsen.There has been relatively little attention paid to climate change in Afghanistan, where the majority of Afghans are farmers or earn income from agriculture, and where the United Nations Environment Programme estimates 80 percent of conflict is over land, water, and resources. Thousands of cubic tons of water rushed down the mountain, triggering a landslide that killed neighbors, destroyed schools, hundreds of homes, and fields growing beans, potatoes, olive trees, and wheat.Glacier volumes in the extended Hindu Kush Himalaya region are projected to decline by up to 90 percent by 2100, according to the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development.The cash-strapped and embattled Afghan government is working on installing stations on the mountain to warn people of disasters. USAID and other development and government agencies have struggled to support dam projects, and such initiatives pose diplomatic and security risks both within Afghanistan and with neighboring countries like Iran.For rural communities across Afghanistan, small dams are lifelines to produce electricity, irrigate fields, and divert water for drinking.In May, a tiny farming village flanked by the Hindu Kush in Afghanistan’s central Bamiyan province—famous for its once towering stone Buddhas blown up by the Taliban in 2001—plunged into darkness when floodwaters wiped out a dam and the electrical lines it powered.The drought set off a series of devastating events. But in other provinces, like Fatemeh’s home of Badghis, due west of Bamiyan, drought and natural disasters further fuel insurgency and militant recruitment.“It was easy for [the Taliban] to capture the area,” says 40-year-old Kamar Gul, who left Badghis two decades ago during a previous drought, and who still has family in Badghis. Beigom and her sons lost their harvest last year due to the drought.While the United States has spent at least $744.9 billion in warfighting since 2001, in addition to millions more from the international community, most of that money went to traditional security efforts: training Afghan soldiers, dropping bombs, and supporting thousands of foreign troops. Only a small fraction of funding has supported initiatives that help Afghans adapt to climate change, respond to natural disasters, and foster resilience.“The development system is broken,” says Anthony Neal, a humanitarian policy analyst who served as Advocacy Manager throughout the drought response for the Norwegian Refugee Council, which helps manage camps for internally displaced people like Fatemeh. In recent years, the United States has loosened regulations on emissions and slashed funding for development programs in Afghanistan and elsewhere.These policy shifts have coincided with controversial peace negotiations with the Taliban, which calls for a pullout of foreign troops in Afghanistan, in addition to other demands that have left many Afghans worried about the future of international aid.Farmers harvest golden bushels of wheat on the outskirts of Herat.