Iowa caucuses 2020: Live updates as Democrats face their first test

These numbers reflect his trips since January of 2019.)— Adam Brewster and Musadiq BidarThe Iowa caucuses are always closely watched and exhaustively analyzed — but how often do they accurately predict which candidate will be the eventual nominee?A look at recent political history shows Iowa voters often pick a winner — but not always.In the past 11 presidential races, the Iowa Democratic caucus correctly predicted the Democratic nominee seven times. So, in four out of the eight contested Iowa Republican caucuses, the state's winner became the party's nominee.Read more here.— Adam Brewster and Musadiq BidarThe senators running for president are back in Washington today for the closing arguments in President Trump's impeachment trial. — Katie Ross Dominick, Rob Legare, Adam Brewster, Grace Segers and Amber AliAlthough the president faces no significant threats in his reelection race, Mr. Trump wants Republican voters to caucus, too, touting recent trade deals his administration has reached."Republicans in Iowa, go out and Caucus today. It looks like a close contest heading in, and the top candidates are all poised to win national delegates.To show what could happen — and more importantly, why — we continued interviewing likely caucus-goers this week for their first- and second-choice preferences in our polling, then combined it with data on Iowa voters generally, and how the caucus system works across the state's counties and districts.Monday dawns with Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden even in first-choice support at 25% each in our baseline model, Pete Buttigieg very close behind at 21%, and Elizabeth Warren at 16%, also in position to accrue some national delegates.