Is the New Bipartisan Consensus on Interest Rates an Illusion?

This state of affairs looks like a straightforward example of what Jonathan Chait calls “the hack gap.” And I do think this is part of the picture, but not its entirety.The conservative voices who have gained influence in the last couple of years urging a more dovish rethink of monetary policy — for example, commentators like Scott Sumner, Ramesh Ponnuru, and Karl Smith — were trying to talk the hawks off the ledge long before Trump became president. So as the emerging conventional wisdom comes to be shared not just by AOC and Larry Kudlow but by members of the Fed board itself — and you can see the board moving that direction, including with Powell’s “absolutely” answer this week — a new institutional perspective could prove as self-perpetuating as the old ones have been, even in the face of electoral and political changes in Washington.Instead of spending his time trying to rein Trump in, Mulvaney is just quietly pushing deregulation effortsMulvaney — who is technically on leave from his first administration job as budget director — spends considerably less time with Trump than his two previous chiefs of staff, Reince Priebus and John F. When Mulvaney cannot be in the Oval Office for a policy meeting, one of his allies is usually there.Folks who want a new government-run health care system have been pretty clear that it would make the law meant to fix the old system obsoleteDemocratic front-runner Joe Biden today will unveil a health plan that’s intended to preserve the most popular parts of Obamacare — from Medicaid expansion to protections for patients with pre-existing conditions — and build on them with a new government-run public insurance option.Biden would also empower Medicare to directly negotiate drug prices, allow the importation of prescription drugs from abroad and extend tax credits to help tens of millions of Americans buy lower-priced health insurance.The plan — which the campaign says will cost $750 billion over a decade, to be paid for by reversing some of the Trump administration’s tax cuts — is less transformative than the “Medicare for All” proposal advanced by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and supported by some other Democrats, which would effectively do away with private insurance and shift all Americans to government-run health care.“I understand the appeal of Medicare for All,” Biden said in a video posted this morning. And I’m not for that.”Come to think of it, why have Cabinet members at all?President Donald Trump has told aides and allies that he is considering removing Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross after a stinging Supreme Court defeat on adding a citizenship question to the census, according to multiple people familiar with the conversations.While Trump has previously expressed frustration with the 81-year-old Ross, in particular over failed trade negotiations, Ross’s long personal relationship with the president has allowed him to keep his job. And after the departure of Labor Secretary Alex Acosta, the Cabinet’s only Hispanic who resigned on Friday amid questions about his role in a controversial 2008 plea agreement with sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, Ross may yet receive another reprieve.But some White House officials expect Ross to be the next Cabinet secretary to depart, possibly as soon as this summer, according to advisers and officials.More poll results like this could erode some of Biden’s “I’m the guy who can beat Trump” appealPresident Donald Trump trails the top Democratic contenders in hypothetical matchups, according to the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll’s first ballot tests of the 2020 general election.Former Vice President Joe Biden leads the president by 9 points among registered voters, 51 percent to 42 percent — outside of the poll’s margin of error of plus-minus 3.5 percentage points.Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., is ahead of Trump by 7 points, 50 percent to 43 percent. That is the heartbreaking story that needs to be told.ICE raids in New York City reportedly thwarted because targeted immigrants knew their rightsFederal immigration authorities attempted raids in at least two neighborhoods in New York City on Saturday, according to a person familiar with the matter, a day prior to when President Trump had said Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents would begin national roundups of people illegally in the U.S.In New York City, ICE agents went to residences in the Harlem section of Manhattan and Brooklyn’s Sunset Park neighborhood, the person said. Cangialosi said the biggest impacts of the storm will be from heavy rains and storm surge.The hurricane center said a storm surge warning is in effect for much of southeast Louisiana, stretching from Intracoastal City to Biloxi, Miss.Momentum to take away some presidential war powersThe House voted Friday to prevent President Trump from launching into war with Iran without getting Congress’ approval first, after more than two dozen Republicans joined Democrats to include the provision in the House’s annual defense authorization bill.The move sets up a likely showdown with the Senate over whether the Iran restriction, which includes an exception for cases of self-defense, will be included in the final bill negotiated between the two chambers.