NBA Players Likely Facing Decline Next Season

Welcome to Regression Watch 2019-20.Age at Start of 2019-20: 342018-19 Per-Game Stats: 16.1 points, 4.4 rebounds, 8.2 assists, 2.0 steals, 56.6 true shooting percentageAdvanced Metrics: 19.5 player efficiency rating (PER), 60.96 total points added (TPA), 4.03 real plus-minus (RPM)Contract Status: Three years, $124.1 million remaining (2021-22 player option)Chris Paul's decline is already underway, which shouldn't come as a shock. He isn't cooking bigs on switches like he did last season and cedes more control of the offense to James Harden without actually making his job easier.Just over 85 percent of Paul's buckets are going unassisted—right in line with last year's mark (85.6) but still ridiculously high. (Related: This includes me.) But if this is the type of from-scratch burden the Rockets are going to have Paul shoulder in 2019-20, they should brace themselves for a more unflattering result.Age at Start of 2019-20: 312018-19 Per-Game Stats: 18.2 points, 2.8 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 0.6 steals, 55.8 true shooting percentageAdvanced Metrics: 19.5 PER, minus-8.08 TPA, minus-1.07 RPMContract Status: Unrestricted free agent this summer (Early Bird)Derrick Rose hangers-on will interpret this as a personal affront. Stephen Curry and Kyrie Irving are the only other players clearing 20 points and five assists per 36 minutes while hitting more than 38 percent of their three-point attempts.It is not a stretch to say this might be the best offensive version of Rose. He's battled ankle problems all year, and while he's on track to cross the 65-game threshold for the first time since 2015-16, he hasn't made 70 appearances since 2010-11, his MVP season. Now, at age 30, he's shooting 38.3 percent from beyond the arc overall and canning nearly 40 percent of his pull-up triples.Paired with the rest of his question marks, this late-career reversal is enough for us to view Rose's 2018-19 performance in uncertain terms.Age at Start of 2019-20: 312018-19 Per-Game Stats: 18.8 points, 5.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.4 blocks, 62.2 true shooting percentageAdvanced Metrics: 19.6 PER, 80.56 TPA, 2.47 RPMContract Status: One year, $22.6 million remainingMultiply ugh by ugh squared, and you will successfully encapsulate how I feel about slotting in Danilo Gallinari. Gallinari could take a backseat to Kawhi Leonard or another star next year, or he could be moved to facilitate the arrival of two max free agents.Age at Start of 2019-20: 342018-19 Per-Game Stats: 20.8 points, 8.8 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 0.5 steals, 1.3 blocks, 56.7 true shooting percentageAdvanced Metrics: 22.4 PER, 41.56 TPA, 0.86 RPMContract Status: Two years, $50 million remaining ($7 million partial guarantee for 2020-21)LaMarcus Aldridge almost avoided this nod. But as the only included player who made this year's All-Star roster, whatever regression he might incur means a whole lot more.Age at Start of 2019-20: 342018-19 Per-Game Stats: 15.1 points, 8.3 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.2 blocks, 53.8 true shooting percentageAdvanced Metrics: 17.2 PER, 110.96 TPA, 3.08 RPMContract Status: $25.6 million player option for 2019-20Marc Gasol is, quite literally, just what the Toronto Raptors ordered."He probably brings to this team something which they never had," assistant coach Sergio Scariolo told CBS Sports' James Herbert.