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Next Gen Stats: Intro to Passing Score metric


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The New York Times
SOURCE: https://www.nfl.com/news/next-gen-stats-intro-to-passing-score-metric
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Summary

These models help contextualize outstanding performances; though, in isolation, the statistical picture is rarely complete.Enter the Next Gen Stats Passing Score powered by AWS.We teamed up with the AWS Proserve data science group to develop a more comprehensive metric for evaluating passing performance. By estimating the expected value of a pass attempt, we can more effectively evaluate quarterback efficiency -- relative to a league-average baseline -- and, in future iterations of the score, quarterback decision-making.The output of our new predicted yards model serves as the basis for our play expectation metric. But that's not all: By going deeper into the outputs of our collective NGS predictive models, we find valuable data points that will serve as the components for our new passing score.Instead of simply awarding all passing yards, touchdowns and interceptions to the quarterback, the NGS Passing Score equation leverages the outputs of our models to form the components that best ...Armed with a collection of powerful AI-driven tools, it is only fitting we put the pieces together to form the seven measurable components that make up our new passing score (listed in order of weight in the formula):(I) Expected Points Added Over Expected (EPAOE) accounts for 46 percent of the passing score. EPAOE measures production relative to an expected value (using our new expected yards model) and is calculated as the difference between the actual value of a pass and the predicted value of the pass before the ball is thrown, when accounting for the probability of each pass outcome (e.g., completion, incompletion or interception).(II) Expected Points Added (EPA) accounts for 18 percent of the passing score. Instead of quantifying the success of a play in terms of yards gained, EPA represents success in terms of points added relative to the current play.(III) Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) accounts for 11 percent of the passing score. Because the NGS Passing Score leverages this solution, we will have the ability to evaluate quarterback play at the season, game and situational level, while still maintaining a consistent distribution shape of scores.So how well does the NGS Passing Score correlate with winning football games? We took a look at 202 individual seasons from 88 different quarterbacks over the last four years, grouped each season into buckets of five (95-plus, 90 to 95, 85 to 90, etc.), and compared the win-loss record and percentage of playoff berths across each bucket.The relationship between a player's single-season NGS Passing Score and winning percentage is quite strong. That is, for a specific player, how similar was the player's metric from one season to the next?The NGS Passing Score has a stronger correlation to win percentage, making the playoffs and finishing with a winning season than both the PFF passing grade and QBR metric, while the PFF passing grade tops the chart in year-over-year stability. Click here to find out as we rank all 14 postseason QB1s based on the Next Gen Stats Passing Score.Using its new Passing Score metrics, the Next Gen Stats team ranks all 14 playoff QBs. Only three passers earned marks in the 90s -- and MVP-candidate Tom Brady wasn't one of them. The Next Gen Stats team evaluates several of the biggest NFL decisions from Week 17, including Zac Taylor's fourth-down strategy in the bizarre finish to Chiefs-Bengals.The Next Gen Stats team evaluates several of the biggest NFL decisions from Week 16, including a pair of pivotal moments in the Bills' enormous win over the rival Patriots. Fourth-down aggressiveness helped give Dan Campbell's Lions an edge against Kliff Kingsbury's Cardinals, who took a more conservative approach.

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