Ohio was a test case for 2024. The GOP establishment looks ...

“I think you can be successful without embracing Trump, but it remains very challenging to get through a Republican primary when you are openly anti-Trump.”One Republican strategist in Ohio described Dolan’s performance as evidence that “there’s a quarter of the party that’s ready to move on [from Trump].”“Is that going to be enough [in 2024]?” the strategist asked. In Georgia and Idaho, two incumbent Republican governors are running ahead of Trump-supported challengers, and Trump-backed candidates are involved in close contests in other states that might raise questions about the strength of his grip on the party.Even in Ohio, Trump’s endorsed candidate, Vance, won the primary with only 32 percent of the vote. Had establishment candidates not chopped up the rest of the party’s support, Trump might have stalled.“A moderate Republican absolutely has a chance in a large field,” said Mike Dennehy, a former executive director of the New Hampshire Republican Party and former Republican National committeeman from the state.Still, in a nod to how limited the universe of non-MAGA voters will be, he said, “I don’t think you can be successful if there is more than one well-known moderate” running. An adviser to one establishment Republican considering running for president in 2024 said that for a non-MAGA candidate, the “best case is that Trump doesn’t run.” If he doesn’t — and if an establishment candidate can raise money — “there’s a clear lane out there for somebody who’s going to be a, ‘Take us back to the basics of the Republican Party’ candidate.”But it’s also possible that Dolan’s 23 percent showing overstates the ceiling for an establishment-lane candidate in 2024. In a presidential election with months of nonstop coverage, virtually every Republican will know Trump’s pick.“Right now, if you’re looking at the anti-Trump capacity or elasticity inside the Republican electorate, it’s maybe 20 percent,” said Kevin Madden, who was a senior adviser to Romney in 2012.For a moderate Republican, he said, “There’s a lane, and there is an opportunity in some states.” But among Republicans who vote most reliably in primaries, Ohio was evidence it is still vanishingly small.“The thing about Trump,” Madden said, “is he just basically blocks out the sun.”Link Copied © 2022 POLITICO LLC