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Omicron may be headed for a rapid drop in US and Britain


the University of Washington
the University of Texas COVID-19 Modeling Consortium
The University of Washington’s
Mokdad
Open University
University of East Anglia
University of Witwatersrand
the World Health Organization
the Centre for Global Health Research
St. Michael’s Hospital
Immunity
Science Department
the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education
AP


Ali Mokdad
Lauren Ancel Meyers
Kevin McConway
Paul Hunter
Shabir Mahdi
Prabhat Jha


British
Western European
COVID-19


Europe

No matching tags


Britain
U.S.
South Africa.“It
Seattle
England
the West Midlands
London
U.K.
France
Spain
Italy
South Africa’s
Easter
Toronto

No matching tags

Positivity     43.00%   
   Negativity   57.00%
The New York Times
SOURCE: https://apnews.com/160ded1ce8d82075057630e11b610358
Write a review: Associated Press
Summary

— an estimate that includes people who were never tested — has already peaked, hitting 6 million on Jan. 6.In Britain, meanwhile, new COVID-19 cases dropped to about 140,000 a day in the last week, after skyrocketing to more than 200,000 a day earlier this month, according to government data.Kevin McConway, a retired professor of applied statistics at Britain’s Open University, said that while cases are still rising in places such as southwest England and the West Midlands, the outbreak may have peaked in London.The figures have raised hopes that the two countries are about to undergo something similar to what happened in South Africa, where in the span of about a month the wave crested at record highs and then fell significantly.“We are seeing a definite falling-off of cases in the U.K., but I’d like to see them fall much further before we know if what happened in South Africa will happen here,” said Dr. Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at Britain’s University of East Anglia.Differences between Britain and South Africa, including Britain’s older population and the tendency of its people to spend more time indoors in the winter, could mean a bumpier outbreak for the country and other nations like it.On the other hand, British authorities’ decision to adopt minimal restrictions against omicron could enable the virus to rip through the population and run its course much faster than it might in Western European countries that have imposed tougher COVID-19 controls, such as France, Spain and Italy.Shabir Mahdi, dean of health sciences at South Africa’s University of Witwatersrand, said European countries that impose lockdowns won’t necessarily come through the omicron wave with fewer infections; the cases may just be spread out over a longer period of time.On Tuesday, the World Health Organization said there have been 7 million new COVID-19 cases across Europe in the past week, calling it a “tidal wave sweeping across the region.” WHO cited modeling from Mokdad’s group that predicts half of Europe’s population will be infected with omicron within about eight weeks.

As said here by MARIA CHENG and CARLA K. JOHNSON