Potential 2021 MLB Trade Deadline Busts to Avoid

You might find the vehicle that carries you for years to come, or you might end up with a lemon that breaks down a few days later.Which players on floundering teams are most likely to fall into that latter group?Based on a combination of how a player's predictive stats compare to previous seasons of his career and to the 2021 norms of the league, we've identified eight key players who figure to get moved before the deadline even though a second-half slump looks likely.Players are listed in no particular order, outside of oscillating between pitchers and position players.In his ninth season in the majors, Kyle Gibson has finally emerged as an ace and made it to an All-Star Game.Despite an atrocious dud on Opening Day (0.1 IP, 5 ER), Gibson entered the break with a 2.29 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. That's because he went at least five innings and allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of his next 15 starts.However, his "luck" rates stand out like a sore thumb compared to how he pitched prior to turning 33.Gibson's BABIP (.254) is more than 50 points below what his career BABIP was at the start of the season. That number was north of 1.0 in each of the previous five seasons, including a 1.60 rate last year.Gibson had career marks of 4.57 ERA and 1.42 WHIP from 2013-20, but his xFIP hasn't much changed. Since the start of last season, he has allowed 49 stolen bases on 58 attempts for a caught-stealing rate of 15.5 percent that is well below the league average.If (when) Stassi's batting average fades, he'll revert to being a marginally above-replacement-level player.On the one hand, Zach Davies looks like a great buy-low candidate. But he's a streaky slugger who is striking out a career-high 21.5 percent of the time and who has a sub-.300 on-base percentage for the second consecutive season.Escobar did hit 20 home runs prior to the All-Star break, and he was selected to represent Arizona at the Midsummer Classic for the first time in his career.