The Case for Biden?s ?Electability? Fades Under Scrutiny

If, like the sizable majority of Democratic voters, you care more about beating Trump than about whatever sketchy thing Biden said about school desegregation 40 years ago, wouldn’t that be persuasive to you?Probably so, but it might not be wise. So it’s far too early to put much stock in head-to-head general-election polls.The former veep benefits a lot from one of the most deeply rooted (if hardly incontrovertible) tenets of American politics: the assumption that candidates deemed “moderate” do better than “liberals/progressives” or “conservatives.” That is often posited as particularly important for Democrats given the relatively large bloc of moderates in their own ranks.While clearly a candidate perceived as “mainstream” is likely to perform better than alternatives who are perceived as “extreme,” these are very fluid terms. Fat lot of good that did her when the deal went down.While there’s no question that the loss of voters from this demographic (as compared to past Democratic nominees) was a key factor in Trump’s ability to eke out an Electoral College win by carrying three previously Democratic Rust Belt states, there are two problems with assuming this is a huge argument for Biden.For one thing, there’s a large element of “fighting the last war” in this perspective. And her loss was certainly close enough that factors other than her gender — her failure to invest resources in key states she lost, the Comey letter, a general lassitude among liberal voters who had no idea Trump could win — may have been decisive.At a minimum progressive activists and media observers should fight the sexist assumptions afflicting candidates like Elizabeth Warren instead of promoting or surrendering to them.I think we can be confident that candidates like Warren — and Kamala Harris, and Amy Klobuchar — will be making that argument regularly, and winning some converts.The importance of risk-aversion in the implicit case for the former veep’s electability should not be underestimated. He’s seen it all, done it all, and survived more mistakes and gaffes than most candidates will ever commit in three lifetimes.But the mistakes and gaffes haven’t necessarily stopped, which is why that first Democratic candidate debate in Miami may have done more to undermine Biden’s perceived electability than anyone quite realizes, as I tried to explain at the time:He brought three basic vulnerabilities into this phase of the 2020 campaign: (1) his age (which most of his supporters may not really comprehend) and the associated impression that he’s not up to job and perhaps is just living in the past; (2) his possible complacency as the early front-runner; and (3) his heavy dependence on African-American voters for his current lead, and his clear vulnerability on his record on racially sensitive issues. And Cook Political Report’s Amy Walter finds evidence that his electability advantage is taking some serious hits:The most recent Washington Post/ABC, CNN and Quinnipiac polls (all taken in the wake of the first Democratic debate), find Biden ahead by 27-30 points on this question of who is best suited to defeat Trump. He’s going to have to remind Democrats of the qualities that made him the front-runner to begin with, and avoid the stumbles and bad luck that made him lose the first two times he ran for president.Folks who want a new government-run health care system have been pretty clear that it would make the law meant to fix the old system obsoleteDemocratic front-runner Joe Biden today will unveil a health plan that’s intended to preserve the most popular parts of Obamacare — from Medicaid expansion to protections for patients with pre-existing conditions — and build on them with a new government-run public insurance option.Biden would also empower Medicare to directly negotiate drug prices, allow the importation of prescription drugs from abroad and extend tax credits to help tens of millions of Americans buy lower-priced health insurance.The plan — which the campaign says will cost $750 billion over a decade, to be paid for by reversing some of the Trump administration’s tax cuts — is less transformative than the “Medicare for All” proposal advanced by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and supported by some other Democrats, which would effectively do away with private insurance and shift all Americans to government-run health care.“I understand the appeal of Medicare for All,” Biden said in a video posted this morning. And after the departure of Labor Secretary Alex Acosta, the Cabinet’s only Hispanic who resigned on Friday amid questions about his role in a controversial 2008 plea agreement with sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, Ross may yet receive another reprieve.But some White House officials expect Ross to be the next Cabinet secretary to depart, possibly as soon as this summer, according to advisers and officials.More poll results like this could erode some of Biden’s “I’m the guy who can beat Trump” appealPresident Donald Trump trails the top Democratic contenders in hypothetical matchups, according to the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll’s first ballot tests of the 2020 general election.Former Vice President Joe Biden leads the president by 9 points among registered voters, 51 percent to 42 percent — outside of the poll’s margin of error of plus-minus 3.5 percentage points.Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., is ahead of Trump by 7 points, 50 percent to 43 percent. Cangialosi said the biggest impacts of the storm will be from heavy rains and storm surge.The hurricane center said a storm surge warning is in effect for much of southeast Louisiana, stretching from Intracoastal City to Biloxi, Miss.Momentum to take away some presidential war powersThe House voted Friday to prevent President Trump from launching into war with Iran without getting Congress’ approval first, after more than two dozen Republicans joined Democrats to include the provision in the House’s annual defense authorization bill.The move sets up a likely showdown with the Senate over whether the Iran restriction, which includes an exception for cases of self-defense, will be included in the final bill negotiated between the two chambers.