Transcript: Africa expert Judd Devermont talks with Michael Morell on "Intelligence Matters"

In this episode of Intelligence Matters, host Michael Morell speaks with Judd Devermont, director of the Africa Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a former senior analyst in the intelligence community. Devermont also reviews Chinese and Russian investments and operations on the continent, and explains why they each have significant long-term implications for U.S. security.INTELLIGENCE MATTERS - JUDD DEVERMONTCORRESPONDENT: MICHAEL MORELL JUDD DEVERMONT:You mean why did someone who grew up in Southern California end up spending a career working in Africa? MICHAEL MORELL:And what was that year in South Africa like? I was going to be in the Bureau of West African Affairs and just before I left for Washington, my father grabs the intern guide book that I had and says, "C.I.A. You should apply to C.I.A." I said, listen, Pops-- MICHAEL MORELL:Why did he say that? JUDD DEVERMONT:I think he loves the operation. MICHAEL MORELL:Wow. JUDD DEVERMONT:That was my first day working for the U.S. Government. MICHAEL MORELL:Wow. JUDD DEVERMONT:And I know where you were and I know you were briefing the President and I was just an intern in West Africa, but I felt a sense of privilege that I was there. It's going to  be an analyst." MICHAEL MORELL:Yeah. MICHAEL MORELL:So you become the National Intelligence Officer for Africa, what does that mean? JUDD DEVERMONT:It's the best job I've ever had, Michael. MICHAEL MORELL:And you also served on the NSC staff on Africa. JUDD DEVERMONT:Yes. MICHAEL MORELL:Talk about that. MICHAEL MORELL:So how many countries are in sub Saharan Africa? MICHAEL MORELL:So how is it possible to keep up with what's going on in 49 countries? JUDD DEVERMONT:Well, I always think it's important to say it has nothing to do with politics. JUDD DEVERMONT:And I had to meet them where they were, which they didn't have the kind of depth that President Obama and his team had on Africa and they had different views and I really enjoyed trying to find ways to communicate the continent's significance and why it matters.But the NIO job was the pinnacle for me. JUDD DEVERMONT:So it just seemed like a time to leave at a high point at this incredible position to engage with new people and think about where we should go next. MICHAEL MORELL:So Intelligence Matters has now been around for a couple of years, we have never had anybody on talking about Africa. JUDD DEVERMONT:This is a difficult question because as we've just talked about, there are 49 countries in sub Saharan Africa, 54, if you include the North African countries. JUDD DEVERMONT:Yes. I teach a class at George Washington University on the History of U.S. Intelligence Analysis in Africa, and I found this piece, a National Intelligence Estimate from 1971 in East Africa, and there's a line in it, maybe you've seen this before, I've never seen it before, the analyst said, "The significance for the United States of developments in East Africa depends on what the U.S. says is important."Right? So the way that I think about Africa right now is in three ways: First, the future is African, demographically. JUDD DEVERMONT:So I think that it's really important to be mindful of these events in these different countries because they do change the way people and systems work. Indian Ocean, the Horn of Africa and Western Saharan, I'm sorry, Western Africa.So I think that we have to recognize that if we are not there to shape what is happening on the continent, to referee, to make sure that we are not blocked out by opportunities, it is going to affect our national interests. MICHAEL MORELL:So talk a little bit about kind of the state of Africa today. JUDD DEVERMONT:Chinua Achebe, the author of Things Fall Apart, said when talking about Nigeria, "The problem with Nigeria is leadership." And I think for many of these countries, leadership and governance and sort of the economic problems that flow from that are still probably the biggest challenges these countries face. JUDD DEVERMONT:It's true of a lot of the countries, right? Africa, Africans are changing our global entertainment and cultural trends in ways that I think are unprecedented. Inter trade within Africa has been historically low.And the Africans under the leadership of Paul Kagame, President of Rwanda, realized that if they are going to increase inter-African trade, if they were going to become a better investment destination, they had to remove some of these barriers.So I think that's what explains the integration, economic integration. First, as I said, still strong support for democracy, but I think there are new ways in which people can organize and mobilize that has changed politics in Africa. And so, whether it's the uprising in Sudan that ended President Al Bashir's rule or it is the remarkable changes in Ethiopia or just increasingly cyclical transfers of power, I think a number of things are happening that really cut against the grain in both the global trends, as you've talked about, but even the way people think about sub Saharan Africa.Because you can always pull out the autocracy or the democracy that is in recession or is regressing. MICHAEL MORELL:Are there countries, and I'm thinking of South Africa, I'm thinking of Nigeria, I'm thinking of Kenya, are there countries that kind of lead the continent? JUDD DEVERMONT:U.S. policy has always thought about sort of anchor states: Nigeria, South Africa, Kenya and Ethiopia. MICHAEL MORELL:You, Judd, you mentioned earlier that other countries are paying attention to what's going on in Africa. And I think that if we are going to be effective at managing what China is doing in sub Saharan Africa, we need to be specific about what the threats are. JUDD DEVERMONT:Yeah, I think partly it's a matter of governance and poor governance. There is a study by UNDP that looked at sort of extremists in Africa and 71% of militants, former militants, said they joined an extremist group because a family member or friend was abused, detained by the security forces.So many of these African militaries make the wrong moves that push people further into the arms of the extremists. MICHAEL MORELL:So Judd, I think this is a good place to switch to U.S. policy and maybe we'll finish up on this. Our diplomats and our development officers depend on the military to get out to these hard-to-reach places.I think our analysts are going to have a harder time understanding dynamics in Africa if there is less U.S. presence in these places. MICHAEL MORELL:Judd, thank you so much for joining us.