Trump?s Two-Front Trade War Is Unsustainable

This only goes further to my point that, while the economic effects of Trump’s tariffs have been limited so far, he has been enlarging them to a point where they are likely to have very material, negative effects on the U.S. economy — which, in turn, could hurt the president politically.With the Mexico action, Trump has proved me wrong about something I’ve been saying for the past couple of weeks: that he appeared to be preparing for a prolonged trade dispute with China by easing off some other trade disputes. Or maybe I was right at the time about what he was doing, and then he changed his mind: NBC News reports immigration adviser Stephen Miller talked him into the Mexico tariffs during the president’s travels in Japan, over the objection of Robert Lighthizer, the U.S. trade representative and key architect of Trump’s China trade policy.Just two weeks ago, Trump removed metal tariffs on Mexico and Canada, seeming to deescalate his trade dispute within North America. But a reescalation with Mexico — remember, our “free-trade agreement” means we’re not supposed to impose tariffs on Mexico just because the president is mad about something — undermines Trump’s case to Mexico and Canada that he’ll abide by the new agreement if it’s ratified. His choice to open a second front in the trade war has predictably pushed stock prices down and will increase the domestic political costs he will face from his protectionist policies.And because the Mexican tariffs have been applied for a purpose that relates to neither trade policy nor national security — he says the tariffs will last until unauthorized migration through Mexico to the U.S. ends, which, if taken literally, would seem to mean the tariffs will stay in effect forever — he is on relatively weak political and legal ground to impose them.I do not think the president has built a position on trade that he will find defensible in the long run. “He was not in any way confident that the process would lead to a successful conclusion,” said one of the attendees, who both spoke on the condition of anonymity because the terms of the meeting were off the record.In not-at-all shocking news, the fake news peddler who created the viral “drunk Pelosi” video is “a Donald Trump superfan and occasional sports blogger from the Bronx”The Daily Beast confirmed his identity:[Shawn] Brooks, a 34-year-old day laborer currently on probation after pleading guilty to domestic battery, claims that his “drunk” commentary on an unaltered Pelosi video had no connection to the now-infamous fake clip that premiered less than 15 minutes later. In the meantime, Europe is still learning how to live with America’s impertinent president.The DOJ releases transcript of Trump lawyer’s possibly obstruction-related voicemail for Flynn, but rebuffs federal judge’s request for moreThe Washington Post reports:Federal prosecutors on Friday declined to make public transcripts of recorded conversations between Michael Flynn and Russia’s ambassador to the United States in December 2016, despite a judge’s order. …The transcripts of the Flynn-Kisylak calls would provide a rare glimpse into the power of American surveillance to capture the private discussions of foreign emissaries — and an intimate look at a budding relationship between a top Russian official and one of the president-elect’s most trusted lieutenants in the weeks before Trump took office.Bloomberg on what they did release:A lawyer for President Donald Trump asked for a “heads up” from former national Security Advisor Michael Flynn’s attorney as Flynn was poised to enter a cooperation agreement with prosecutors from Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s office, according to a transcript of the message made available Friday.The lawyer, John Dowd, said in a voicemail the warning was necessary for the sake of “protecting all our interests, if we can, without you having to give up any … confidential information.” Dowd also reminded the general’s lawyer of the president’s “feelings” toward Flynn and said “that still remains.” …In the transcript, which was peppered with ellipses and incomplete phrases, Dowd raised the prospect of information that might be damaging to the president. Tulsi Gabbard and Eric Swalwell, Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana, and former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper will also appear on Saturday.This went to a weird placeAsked by CBS News’ Jan Crawford about concerns over his reputation for defending the president amid ongoing probes into the administration’s alleged ties to the Russian government and claims that Mr. Trump obstructed justice, [Attorney General] Barr appeared indifferent.“I am at the end of my career,” Barr said.