Which Democratic Presidential Candidates Have Qualified for the First Debates?

In February, the Democratic National Committee published reasonably clear rules and guidelines for these events, making it possible to figure out with some specificity which candidates have qualified for the big stage — or rather, stages, since the DNC anticipates events that span two consecutive evenings to accommodate the large field, with placement in one night or the other being determined randomly (so no “kiddie table” debates like Republicans held in 2016 for less-esteemed candidates).The DNC offered two ways to qualify:Polling Method: Register 1% or more support in three polls (which may be national polls, or polls in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and/or Nevada) publicly released between January 1, 2019, and 14 days prior to the date of the Organization Debate. We’ll continue updating this post as more candidates make the cut.Though he’s yet to actually announce, Biden has ranked at or very near the top in every national and early-state poll taken this year. He’s running roughly even with Harris nationally, though a bit further back in the early states, where he will need to make up ground through personal appearances.Given her political stature, the Massachusetts senator has not impressed most observers with either her fundraising or her poll numbers, though in the latter respect, she’s comfortably above the debate threshold. Debates could help her showcase her universally acknowledged policy chops, but will also test concerns about her “likability.” Like Harris, she remains well-positioned ideologically in a diverse but left-leaning field.If O’Rourke looks better in national than in early-state polls, Booker is the reverse. Who else might qualify?There are several potential candidates who might make the polling threshold pretty quickly if they choose to run, including Montana governor Steve Bullock (who has said he’d decide once his legislature has adjourned); former Virginia governor Terry McAuliffe, who is a legendary fundraiser; and the aforementioned Michael Bennet. Another announced candidate, New Agey self-help author Marianne Williamson, has enough of a national following that she might qualify via the grassroots fundraising method, if not polling minimums.We’ll know a lot more about fundraising strategies and their relative success soon, after the March 31 deadline for Federal Election Commission first-quarter reports has passed and numbers begin to emerge.At this point it doesn’t seem likely that the debate-qualified field will rise above 20 candidates, forcing sponsors, under the DNC rules, to cut previous qualifiers to get down to that maximum number. Before Pence departed for the fundraiser on Wednesday, the president asked him to deliver a message to state Republicans.“Tell them we think Virginia is in play and that I’m going to be there,” Trump told the vice president, according to one person familiar with the exchange.Black box data from the Ethiopia Airlines crash supports the leading theory that the automated MCAS system was the causeOfficials investigating the fatal crash of a Boeing Co. 737 MAX in Ethiopia have reached a preliminary conclusion that a suspect flight-control feature automatically activated before the plane nose-dived into the ground, according to people briefed on the matter, the first findings based on data retrieved from the flight’s black boxes.The emerging consensus among investigators, one of these people said, was relayed during a high-level briefing at the Federal Aviation Administration on Thursday, and is the strongest indication yet that the same automated system, called MCAS, misfired in both the Ethiopian Airlines flight earlier this month and a Lion Air flight in Indonesia, which crashed less than five months earlier. But it certainly doesn’t help with elite Republican confidence in him…not that there’s anything they can do about it.It’s hard not to enjoy the manifest agony over this of Trump sycophants like Kevin McCarthy.Yes, probably a mistake to assume Trump would either recognize reality or respond to it the way a normal person would.What a mensch!What’s wrong with this picture?That’s our manA meeting of the lefty mindsNYC’s ferries are a lot nicer than the subway, but at a steep costNew York Mayor Bill de Blasio’s system of ferry boats linking Manhattan with transit-poor sections of Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx is costing city taxpayers almost $11 per ride, 10 times more than they pay to subsidize subways and buses, according to the Citizens Budget Commission.The system’s dependence on high taxpayer subsidies comes as city and state officials move toward enacting congestion pricing fees for motorists entering midtown Manhattan.