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Who Gets the Max? Predicting Top Earners in 2019 NBA Free Agency


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SOURCE: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2823462-who-gets-the-max-predicting-top-earners-in-2019-nba-free-agency
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Summary

Long-term security seems like it matters to him, and accepting a hair or more below his max salary is a good way to extract a five-year commitment from Philly.Prediction: Signs five-year, sub-max deal with the Sixers or a four-year, near-max contract with another team.Tobias Harris, Philadelphia 76ersTobias Harris will have the chance to sign a max deal with whoever this summer. Bet on the answer being yes—although, given his relatively young age, this isn't an open-and-shut case.Prediction: Signs five-year near-max deal with the Sixers.Khris Middleton, Milwaukee Bucks (player option)Khris Middleton's market parallels Harris' projection. The competition for him will look a lot different in 2022 or 2023.Locking down a five-year commitment from the Bucks at a smidge below the max boosts his earning potential in a way that taking the three- or four-year season route probably won't.Prediction: Signs five-year sub-max deal with the Bucks.Kristaps Porzingis, Dallas Mavericks (restricted)Initial reporting following his trade to the Mavericks had Kristaps Porzingis planning to accept his qualifying offer and entering unrestricted free agency in 2020, per The Athletic's Shams Charania. Signing on to play next year at that amount could leave more than $20 million on the table, even if he isn't getting a max salary from the Mavericks ($27.3 million).Expect Dallas and Porzingis to find a lucrative middle ground. It makes sense for him to net star money now when the rosiest trajectories are still intact.Prediction: Signs four-year near-max deal with the Mavericks.Never mind the "where" of Kevin Durant's free agency. That won't hurt his market in the slightest, but it does force his primary suitors to structure their cap sheets and pursuits of other star free agents accordingly.Prediction: Signs three-plus-one max with the Clippers or Knicks.Much like Kevin Durant before him, Kyrie Irving's destination remains a mystery. Joining another team on a four-year, $140.6 million max would cost him $80.6 million in guaranteed money.This isn't perfect math. If he signs a shorter contract to optimize his long-term earning potential, don't expect him to accept a starting salary below his $32.7 million max.Prediction: Signs two-plus-one max with the Clippers or Raptors.Klay Thompson had no inkling to give the Warriors a discount on his next contract entering the regular season, as ESPN.com's Zach Lowe noted. Stars in their early 30s aren't considered terribly old, and Thompson plays a brand of basketball that should age well at both ends of the floor.Prediction: Signs five-year max with the Warriors.Kemba Walker isn't in a position to be taking any discounts.

As said here by Dan Favale