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Worries mount that southern winter may tighten COVID-19?s grip

National Geographic Society
National Geographic Partners
Vila Formosa
the University of São Paulo’s School of Public Health
Vitamin D
University of New Mexico
Measles Laboratory
the Oswaldo Cruz Institute
The World Health Organization
Los Alamos National Laboratory

Ana Paula Sayuri Sato
Kathryn Hanley
Marilda Siqueira


Southern Hemisphere’s
the Southern Hemisphere

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São Paulo
São Paulo
Rio de Janeiro

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Positivity     40.00%   
   Negativity   60.00%
The New York Times
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Also, this coronavirus strain, known officially as SARS-CoV-2, is so new that there’s not yet enough data to say anything conclusive.“It probably is a seasonal virus, just like other respiratory viruses, but in this first moment of propulsion, it’s still difficult to know how it will behave,” says Ana Paula Sayuri Sato, an epidemiologist at the University of São Paulo’s School of Public Health.For now, scientists can glean some early clues from known seasonal diseases—including other members of the coronavirus family—that cause common colds every winter.Though there is no definitive answer as to why some viruses have a seasonal circulation pattern and others don’t, several factors help many viral threats propagate in the winter months specifically.Many respiratory viruses, such as the common cold and flu, are more stable at cooler temperatures. Additionally, a lack of vitamin D can impair lung output and can increase the risk for respiratory diseases including asthma, tuberculosis, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.Even if COVID-19 cases rise significantly this year as the Southern Hemisphere heads into winter, that alone won’t prove that seasonality is the culprit.Because some known seasonal viruses have been around for a long time, enough people have developed immunities that researchers can more precisely study how those diseases’ behavior changes over time.

As said here by Jill Langlois